
Boards can name the pressures on their business easily enough. Which one becomes a crisis is another matter. The timing is harder still. Half of the 1,300 experts in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026 expect a turbulent or stormy two years, and that uncertainty leaves the people in charge as the one variable a board still controls. Kevin Bradbury and Jan-Bart Smits of Stanton Chase Amsterdam argue that this capability is observable rather than assumed. You see it in how an executive behaves when the situation is unclear and the usual methods stop working. Assessment can measure that behavior directly. A career built in calmer conditions cannot predict it. Investors have reached the same conclusion from the other side. They cannot forecast the future either. So they pay for the leadership that handles what they cannot forecast. Research from the RBL Group puts about 30 percent of an investor’s decision on the quality of leadership, and Harvard Business Review research found that financial results explain only around half of a company’s market value. The consequence shows in what organizations are recruiting for.
Crisis readiness is often treated as a planning exercise, a risk register, a scenario workshop, or an insurance decision. Each of those has its uses. What decides the outcome is something else: the judgment of the people in charge when the plan stops working.
Few boards can say which disruption will reach them, or when. The Covid pandemic gave almost no warning. The war in Ukraine changed European energy policy faster than companies had planned for. Both arrived without a date on anyone’s risk register. Much of what follows draws on our work with boards in the Netherlands and across Europe. The pattern is not a regional one.
Ask a board to name the pressures on its business. The answers come easily. Geopolitical conflict, technological change, cyber risk, and climate regulation are all visible from a distance, and boards already expect them. Naming them is not the hard part. Which one turns into a crisis, and when, is much harder to call. What happens when two arrive together is equally hard to plan for.
Cyber is the plainest example. Boards know they need cyber resilience. The timing and the method are far less clear. Our cyber resilience series makes the case that leaders have to own this risk themselves. Handing it to a technical function is what separates the organizations that cope from the ones that do not. Technology follows the same logic. A board can see that AI will change how it competes. Which rival or which capability makes the change urgent is a different question, and few boards can answer it in advance. As our digital transformation leadership strategies set out, technological readiness is a leadership problem before a technical one.
Cyber and technology are two of those four pressures. The other pressures have the same shape: clearly visible, hard to schedule. Executives are left bracing for events they cannot date. The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, which gathers the views of more than 1,300 experts worldwide, names geoeconomic confrontation as the risk most likely to trigger a material global crisis this year. Half of its respondents expect the next two years to be turbulent or stormy. Turbulent and stormy are the two most severe points on the Forum’s scale. Chief executives are worried about something closer to home. PwC’s 29th Global CEO Survey polled 4,454 CEOs across 95 countries and territories. Only three in ten were confident about revenue growth over the coming year. PwC reports that as the lowest level in five years.
Near-term risk ranking
Geoeconomic confrontation leads
Share of experts naming each as the risk most likely to trigger a material global crisis in 2026.
Geoeconomic confrontation
18%State-based armed conflict
14%Extreme weather events
8%Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report 2026, more than 1,300 experts
Global outlook, next two years
Half of the experts expect turbulence
Share of experts by the outlook they expect over the next two years.
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report 2026, more than 1,300 experts. The Forum does not publish a separate figure for stable.
The instinct is to answer that unpredictability with better forecasting. Forecasting has a limit. Prediction rarely finishes before the event does. The risk register is usually one line short of the thing that happens. So the weight tends to fall in the same place, on the people running the company. What has to be true of them is the subject of the rest of this article.
Crisis-ready leadership shows in conduct, not on a CV. You see it in how an executive behaves when the situation is unclear and the usual methods stop working. We assess for that behavior directly, rather than reading it off a career built in calmer conditions.
Our leadership assessment practice uses Hogan-based frameworks, calibrated for the Dutch and wider European market. They measure behavior under pressure against a defined profile. Five attributes carry most of the weight. Adaptive intelligence is demonstrated performance in ambiguous situations, not fluency in describing them. Psychological robustness is the capacity to absorb pressure without turning rigid or reactive. Authentic communication is the honesty and composure to carry bad news to people who do not want it. Team depth is cross-functional capability that survives the loss of any one person. Speed to recalibrate is the willingness to change course without defending money already spent. The graphic below sets them out one at a time.
Interactive
What we assess
Five attributes of crisis-ready leadership
Behavior under pressure, measured against a defined profile. Select any attribute below to read what we look for.
Adaptive intelligence
Demonstrated performance in ambiguous situations counts for more than the ability to describe ambiguity fluently in an interview. We look for evidence of how someone has behaved when the situation was unclear, not a track record built in easier conditions.
Psychological robustness
Leaders who perform through disruption absorb pressure without becoming rigid or reactive, and they maintain judgment and values under stress.
Authentic communication
Honesty, composure, and credibility determine whether a difficult narrative holds together and whether a complex set of stakeholders stays on side.
Team depth
The best crisis leaders build organizations with cross-functional capability that hold together when it matters most, because resilience that depends on one person is not resilience at all.
Speed to recalibrate
The willingness to change course without anchoring to sunk costs, so that a losing position is abandoned early rather than defended.
Source: Stanton Chase leadership assessment, Hogan-based frameworks
Boards are not the only ones dealing with this. Investors cannot forecast the future either, and that has changed how they value a company. The financials describe a business as it stands today. What it becomes depends on whoever is running it when conditions change. Our publication on exit-ready leadership looks at how acquirers assess adaptability alongside the balance sheet. McKinsey’s Global Private Markets Report 2026 reaches the same conclusion, finding that CEO selection and development have become key drivers of portfolio company outperformance, an effect the report’s authors call CEO Alpha. What an investor is really paying for is performance in the moments no model predicts. A track record from settled markets says very little about that.
Research from the RBL Group found that investors allocate roughly 30 percent of their decision-making to the quality of leadership, while Harvard Business Review research, Calculating the Market Value of Leadership, found that reported financial outcomes predict only about half of a firm’s market value. The other half is harder to put on a balance sheet. As we explored in Talent as a Value Driver, leadership is one of the few parts of that remainder you can measure.
How investors decide
Thirty percent of the call is leadership
Investors allocate roughly 30 percent of their decision-making to the quality of leadership. Related work found that reported financial outcomes predict only about half of market value.
Source: RBL Group; Harvard Business Review
The link between leadership and company value is well documented. McKinsey’s research on organizational health finds that organizations emphasizing health deliver total shareholder returns three times greater than their peers. Leadership quality is one component it measures. PwC’s analysis of reinvention points in the same direction, finding that companies which adapt their business and operating models well achieve a 71 percent performance premium on a combined measure of profit margin and revenue growth. The PwC figure is the closer of the two to crisis readiness, because it measures companies that changed rather than companies already in good shape. For a board, this is the practical point. Buyers and investors already pay for the capability described earlier in this article.
The reinvention premium
A 71 percent performance premium
Companies that adapt their business and operating models well achieve a 71 percent premium on a combined measure of profit margin and revenue growth.
Source: PwC, via the World Economic Forum
The clearest evidence is in what clients are recruiting for. Companies come to us for senior AI and transformation leaders while the competitive threat is still hypothetical. Businesses that have never been breached ask for cyber leaders with intelligence-service backgrounds. Boards want sustainability expertise that goes well beyond the reporting duties they already carry. In each case the client can name the pressure. Putting a date on it is another matter.
Interactive
The pattern behind each search
Known pressure, unknowable timing
A client can name the pressure years ahead. Nobody can put a date on the event. Select any of the three below.
The pressure you can name
AI will change how the business competes
The event you cannot date
Which rival or which capability makes it urgent
The search that answers it
A transformation leader who has already run AI delivery at scale
The pressure you can name
The business will be attacked
The event you cannot date
When it happens, and what method is used
The search that answers it
A security leader who has handled live incidents, not only designed controls
The pressure you can name
Reporting duties and climate costs keep growing
The event you cannot date
When a regulator or a major customer forces the pace
The search that answers it
A non-executive who has taken a board through a reporting regime before
The three searches differ, but the move behind each one is the same. A client names a pressure it cannot time, then puts the right person in place before it. Any executive team should be able to answer the same question. Can it adapt and keep its people aligned when a shock arrives without notice? We put that question at the center of the searches we run from Amsterdam, with clients across EMEA and colleagues in more than 45 countries. The answer is something a board can test in advance, rather than discover in the middle of a crisis.
Kevin Bradbury joined Stanton Chase in 2012 and is a Partner based in Amsterdam. He began his career in the technology search industry in 2005 in Toronto, Canada. Kevin manages and delivers leadership search assignments across all functions for SaaS, PaaS, and IDaaS businesses, telecommunications platform service providers, and technology consultancy firms. He specializes in searches for Director and Partner roles in the Professional Services sector, spanning Strategy and Operations, Management Consulting, Audit and Assurance, and Deals Advisory. Kevin works with colleagues and investors across EMEA to identify, assess, and appoint seasoned executives for C-suite and Non-Executive Board Member positions in portfolio companies. His approach is hands-on, aiming at a shortlist of candidates qualified to create substantial value and support a successful exit. He is the author of Exit-Ready Leadership, Our Top 7 Strategies, and Talent as a Value Driver.
He holds a B.A. in Law and Political Science from Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada. He is certified by Hogan Assessment Systems for Leadership and Team Assessments. He is also a certified practitioner in Culture and Executive Search from Hofstede Insights.
Jan-Bart Smits began his career in executive search in 1990. He joined Stanton Chase after more than a decade at another global search firm, where he led the Technology and Professional Services Practice for the Netherlands, ran the European e-Business Practice, and later led the Technology and Professional Services Practice for the Middle East and North Africa from the Dubai office. At Stanton Chase, Jan-Bart serves as Managing Partner for the Amsterdam office. He runs the Global Semiconductor Practice and Global Technology Practice. He has previously held the roles of Global Practice Leader for Professional Services and Global Chair. He specializes in high-level executive search across Technology, Professional Services, and Semiconductors. He conducts CxO and non-executive board assignments across the Netherlands and internationally. Jan-Bart is the author of the Stanton Chase cyber resilience series, including Chapter 1, Chapter 2, and Chapter 3. He is a recognized voice on board governance, AI leadership, and organizational resilience.
He holds an MSc in Astrophysics from Leiden University.
At Stanton Chase, we're more than just an executive search and leadership consulting firm. We're your partner in leadership.
Our approach is different. We believe in customized and personal executive search, executive assessment, board services, succession planning, and leadership onboarding support.
We believe in your potential to achieve greatness and we'll do everything we can to help you get there.
View All Services